What's the consensus predictions for oil prices in the next six months

The consensus predictions for oil prices in the next six months (Q4 2025 and Q1 2026) suggest a market that is likely to be well-supplied, with some forecasts indicating potential for lower prices due to slowing demand growth and increasing supply. However, there are differing views among key energy agencies.

Key takeaways from recent reports include:

• Brent Crude Outlook: Some forecasts have revised Brent crude prices down, expecting them to average around USD 55 per barrel in the first half of 2026, a decrease from a prior forecast of USD 65 per barrel.
• WTI Crude Outlook: One company's forecast projects WTI at approximately USD 71.00 per barrel for 2025 and USD 76.00 per barrel for 2026. For context, Q1 2025 average WTI was reported at USD 71.42 per barrel and Brent at USD 75.66 per barrel by one energy firm.
• Supply-Demand Dynamics:
• IEA Perspective: The International Energy Agency (IEA) has consistently trimmed its oil demand growth forecasts for both 2025 and 2026, citing factors such as weaker global economic growth in major economies like the US and China, and the increasing adoption of clean energy technologies. The IEA anticipates an oil market surplus of 1.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025 and 2.1 mb/d in 2026.
• OPEC Perspective: In contrast, OPEC maintains a more bullish long-term outlook, projecting continued oil demand expansion through at least 2050, driven by global economic growth, population increases, and new energy-intensive industries.
• OPEC+ Production: OPEC+ has been unwinding voluntary production cuts, with plans to further boost output through October, which is expected to reverse earlier cuts and contribute to a more pronounced market surplus. Non-OPEC supply is also projected to increase significantly, adding to the overall supply growth.
• Market Volatility: Geopolitical tensions and global economic concerns, including potential tariffs and interest rate uncertainty, are noted as ongoing drivers of price volatility and risks to demand growth.

Overall, while some benchmarks have seen recent stability or slight increases, the prevailing sentiment from the IEA and market analyses points towards a potentially oversupplied market in the coming months, which could exert downward pressure on prices.