Henry, your question about The Metals Company (TMC) and the potential for deep-sea mining to begin soon, along with China's role, touches on several complex and evolving geopolitical and regulatory issues.
Here's a breakdown of the current situation:
TMC's Path to Deep-Sea Mining:
TMC is actively pursuing commercial deep-sea mining, primarily focusing on polymetallic nodules in the Clarion Clipperton Zone (CCZ) of the Pacific Ocean. These nodules contain critical metals like nickel, copper, cobalt, and manganese, which are essential for electric vehicles and other emerging technologies.
TMC's strategy has recently shifted. While the International Seabed Authority (ISA) has been working on a "mining code" for exploitation in international waters for over a decade, progress has been slow, and crucial sections, including environmental protection mechanisms, still lack consensus. The ISA failed to deliver a final mining code in its July 2025 session, with no new target date set.
Given these delays, TMC has pivoted to pursuing permits under the existing U.S. Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act of 1980 (DSHMRA). In April 2025, TMC USA, a wholly-owned subsidiary of TMC, formally submitted applications for two exploration licenses and one commercial recovery permit to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This move was accelerated by a U.S. Executive Order, "Unleashing America’s Offshore Critical Minerals and Resources," which directs the Department of Commerce to expedite permitting.
As of August 11, 2025, NOAA confirmed full compliance of TMC USA's exploration license applications, and they are now in the certification stage. TMC is targeting a Q4 2027 production start if it receives a commercial permit. However, NOAA has not yet issued a commercial recovery permit under DSHMRA, and there's no assurance that TMC's applications will be approved on a timely basis or at all.
China's Stance and Rare Earth Element Monopoly:
China currently holds a near-monopoly on the processing of many critical minerals, including rare earth elements, controlling about 80% of global critical mineral processing capacity and nearly 90% of rare earth element processing capacity. This dominance has allowed China to use these materials as a geopolitical tool, for instance, by restricting exports of critical minerals in retaliation for U.S. semiconductor restrictions.
China has expressed strong opposition to the U.S. move to fast-track deep-sea mining permits outside the ISA framework, stating that it "violates international law" and harms the international community's interests. Beijing has generally held off on large-scale deep-sea mining in international waters while awaiting ISA rules.
The concern is that if deep-sea mining by companies like TMC, particularly under U.S. domestic law, proceeds, it could challenge China's control over the supply chain of critical minerals. The U.S. initiative is explicitly aimed at countering China's growing influence over seabed mineral resources and securing America's supply chain.
Odds of Intervention:
While China has voiced strong diplomatic opposition to the U.S. approach to deep-sea mining, the direct "kibosh" on TMC's operations would be challenging without a universally agreed-upon international regulatory framework. The U.S. is not a party to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) or a member of the ISA, allowing it to pursue its domestic legal framework.
However, China's significant influence in global supply chains and its strategic control over midstream processing of rare earth elements and other critical minerals could still pose indirect challenges. For instance, if TMC extracts polymetallic nodules, the subsequent processing and refining of these materials into usable metals could still face hurdles if China were to exert pressure on global processing capabilities.
In summary, while TMC is pushing forward with U.S. domestic permits, and there's strong U.S. government support to secure critical mineral supply chains, the regulatory path is still uncertain. China's strong opposition and its existing dominance in critical mineral processing add a significant geopolitical layer to the deep-sea mining landscape.
For more detailed information, you can explore the SEC filings from The Metals Company (TMC) available on Fintel's platform, specifically their 10-Q filings and various Exhibit 99.1 announcements, which provide updates on their permit applications and strategic direction. You can also find news articles on Fintel that cover the ongoing ISA negotiations and geopolitical developments related to deep-sea mining and critical minerals.
