Rigetti Computing (RGTI) is highly dependent on government R&D funding, making shifts in this area a critical factor for its 2026 outlook. The company explicitly states that the "substantial majority" of its revenues are derived from development contracts, a trend anticipated to continue for at least the next several years.1 For the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025, sales to government entities constituted 92.6% and 91.4% of Rigetti's total revenue, respectively.2
Here's how shifts in government R&D funding could impact Rigetti:
- Significant Revenue Sensitivity: Given the high proportion of revenue from government sources, any reduction or delay in funding can have an immediate and substantial impact on Rigetti's top line. The company has already noted that its revenue has been negatively affected by the expiration of the National Quantum Initiative Act (NQIA) in September 2023 and the pending reauthorization in the US Congress.1
- Contract Volatility: Rigetti's development contracts are typically fixed-price milestone or cost-share based, which inherently leads to significant fluctuations in revenue recognition based on the timing of milestone delivery and work performed.1 This means even with consistent overall funding, the timing of revenue can be unpredictable.
- Ongoing R&D Investment: Rigetti continues to incur significant operating losses as it invests heavily in research, development, and infrastructure, a strategy it expects to continue for the foreseeable future.1 Consistent government R&D funding is crucial to sustain these investments and achieve its technology roadmap goals, such as deploying a 150+ qubit system by late 2026.3
- Recent Contract Wins and Engagements: Despite the NQIA reauthorization uncertainty, Rigetti has recently secured new government contracts. In September 2025, it was awarded a three-year, $5.8 million contract from the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) to advance superconducting quantum networking.3 The company is also engaged with DARPA on the Quantum Benchmarking Initiative (QBI) and remains optimistic about future participation.3 These wins demonstrate continued government interest in Rigetti's technology.
- Broader Market Trend: While specific legislation like the NQIA is important, the broader trend indicates increasing global government investment in quantum computing. Governments worldwide announced $1.8 billion in quantum computing investments in 2024, with early 2025 investments exceeding $10 billion.4 This suggests a growing pie, but Rigetti's ability to secure its share is paramount.
In summary, while Rigetti has demonstrated its ability to secure new government contracts and the overall market for quantum R&D funding is growing, the uncertainty surrounding specific legislative acts like the NQIA poses a direct risk to its 2026 outlook. The company's financial health, characterized by significant losses, makes sustained and timely government funding essential for its continued development and commercialization efforts.
